Is Huawei ready to make its own core?

On June 25, DigiTimes quoted anonymous industry sources as saying that Huawei will construct the first chip factory in Wuhan during the construction period and mentioned that the factory plans to initially produce optical communication chips and modules, and plans to start production in 2022.

The article also discussed the plans of BYD, Wingtech, and SMIC in the chip field. In the near future, the three companies plan to build three production lines respectively.

In the past month, Zhiwu (WeChat public account: Zhiwu Technology Review) has been hearing about Huawei's Wuhan 28-nanometer factory plan. However, previous rumors have always been that Huawei plans to find one or two partners, not Build a factory alone.

The disadvantage is that at present, the chip supply solution timetable given by various institutions is based on current product demand, and does not consider future automotive and IoT chip demand trends...

Tesla has not yet achieved autonomous driving, and tens of millions of fuel vehicles around the world need to be digitalized...

Behind the digital terminal, a larger-scale data center is needed...

Global carbon neutrality can only rely on digital photovoltaic and wind power...

The real chip shortage may not have arrived yet. The conclusion of Huawei's senior management should be correct. To meet the prosperity of the division of labor in the consumer electronics global industrial chain, it can only be solved by the division of labor in the global industrial chain. There is no good strategy other than the transfer of chip manufacturing to China.

01.Huawei makes its own core?

Rotating Chairman Hu Houkun also talked about the chip issue in a media interview a month ago. At that time, Hu Houkun explained Huawei's position as a supplier of ICT system equipment. Huawei's prediction is that the industrial chain form of the global cooperation model should still become the mainstream of the development of the semiconductor industry.

Hu Houkun called on governments of all countries to help the industrial chain restore global cooperation. If what Hu Houkun said is true, based on this prediction, will Huawei go to be a chip foundry?

To solve the problem of chip supply, first, think about how many chips will be needed in one year. What about 10 years?

As Hu Houkun said, Huawei’s ToB business, especially the operator business, has no chip supply problems in the short term because the business person in charge arranges chip purchases in advance.

However, the consumer business that Huawei has been paying attention to before is destined to be difficult to recover due to the impact of chip supply and the Android ban. After the sale of Honor, Huawei has also begun to resume cooperation with Qualcomm to purchase 4G chips to meet the needs of the low-end market, but The suspension of mid-to-high-end business has become a fact.

Huawei has also been considering the issue of cooperation in this part of the business. Prosthetic operators or foundries will solve the problem of chip procurement in order to digest the previous models under research and continue the brand.

The core technology and product teams of Huawei's consumer business are currently helping some automotive partners build cars in preparation for their own cars in the future. The premise is that Huawei can independently solve the supply problem of automotive chips, including foundry of similar GPU chips and more device chips.

Some people in Huawei are optimistic about Huawei's independent establishment of a factory to solve the problem of chip supply, and they are confident in the process transition from 28nm to 14nm.

The question is, is Huawei really ready to enter a whole new field? How long will it take for Huawei to compete with leading companies like TSMC and Samsung?

But now, Europe, America, and Japan want to build their own chip production lines. On June 22, the "Wall Street Journal" quoted the original AMD founder Jerry Sanders as saying, "Real men should have their own chip factories." However, outside of global politicians, investors, and speculators in some chip factories, who think they are really ready to compete with TSMC and Samsung.

In Wuhan, Chengdu, Jinan, Guizhou, and the northeast of that year, many chip nightmare, Yin Jian is not far away.

The success of TSMC and Samsung depends on the huge growth of the global consumer electronics market and industrial chain. Can the Chinese market independently support such companies? Prior to this, Huawei had tried to avoid entering into long-term, asset-heavy fields such as display panel and chip manufacturing.

As far as Huawei is concerned, the independent plant construction plan mentioned by the media is not a good strategy.

02. The chip industry cannot afford the cost of a global technology breakup

Recently, the global media has extensively discussed the cause, impact, and end of the global core shortage. The chip predicament has long been not only Huawei, not just mobile phones, but the problems faced by many industries such as global consumer electronics, automobiles, and entertainment.

Its influence has involved Microsoft, Tesla, General Motors, Volkswagen, and other giants. This problem seems to be difficult to solve so that the current US president actually has to personally order to thoroughly investigate the reasons for the lack of cores.

The world's chip demand is not what the current politician can predict

This question seems not difficult. A few days ago, a taxi driver at Shenzhen Airport said the following:

The epidemic has led to a surge in demand for basic IT consumer goods such as PCs. At the same time, epidemic factors have also affected the production and transportation of the chip industry chain; the trend of IoT is growing, and all products need chips...

Working at home and entertainment are all stimulating the growth of the data center market...

Under the epidemic, the central banks of various countries released water, and the floods were surging, stimulating the growth of digital currencies such as Bitcoin...

There are also one or two. For example, the person in charge of Huawei's operator business has a premonition of a chip crisis.

When the chip is needed most, it meets the most difficult period of chip production. "The Economist" mentioned that the world's leading chip foundries have been reduced from 30 20 years ago to two: TSMC and Samsung. This is the result of the trend of close cooperation in the global technology industry chain, but now it has to go against the current?

A basic conclusion is that with the rapid development of global smart cars, IoT devices, and data centers, the scale of chip production is no longer the scale of the construction of one or two factories in the United States, the European Union, and Japan. The construction of one or two factories in Guizhou and Northeast China can solve the problem. Of it.

The prediction made by Hu Houkun should be a conclusion that global politicians and investors always remember. The division of labor in the global science and technology industry chain has long been the result of today, and it may only be solved by a reasonable global division of labor in the chip industry chain. For example, the modern chip manufacturing industry has transferred to China in a certain way...

Speaking of Wuhan, during the past epidemic test, several semiconductor factories in Wuhan have not stopped work. Only such a place is suitable for the production of such important industrial chain devices.

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Another story is that after the communications industry, Europe and the United States began to take measures such as restrictions on the Chinese manufacturing industry in the photovoltaic field. Europe and the United States hope to regain their photovoltaic industry, just like the 5G communications industry.

It was also promoted by local players such as Firstsolar to take countermeasures against Chinese industries. However, European and American industries will soon discover that it may not be easier to rebuild their own photovoltaic industry than China's search for modern chip manufacturing.